Raze and Ruin Build-up: Part 5

Here's the second part of Dr Corteen's (that better Jake? ;-) ) predictions - Ogres to Wood Elves edition. As before, I may well weigh in from time to time, but aside from that blame him!

OGRES

Mark Borland: Comp +7

Quite an interesting and different Ogre list, very MSU, and unusual compared to all the very low comp Ogre lists at the event. If I had to guess I’d expect a flying carpet hunter and a wizarding hat tyrant, plus Runemaw BSB, to account for the comp score. MSU Ogres have been doing well recently, surprising a lot of people, so I wouldn’t underestimate it – and he has gotten a (mini) gutstar and double ironblaster into comp +7! Plus he’s drawn me round 1, and he’s due beating me.

Martyn Furnival: Comp -12.5

Someone’s confident! It’s a hard list, that’s for sure. I think a number of the mid-comp lists have the tools to beat it though, for all its Hellhearts, Ironblasters and the like. The DoC in particular could be difficult. Still, I’d expect a few utter smash results, before hitting something it can’t handle near the top and getting knocked back down a tiny bit, with comp score leading to a mid upper table finish. I could be wrong though – the right run of matchups or luck and we could see the low comp list right up at the top.

Christian Moore: Comp -9

Are Ogres overcomped, or are they just taking filth? (I'm wondering if they're overcomped, but as an Ogre player I would say that! - Sandy) I mean, Mark’s list shows you can manage something interesting at positive scores… I think Martyn’s list is harder, and they’ve drawn each other round 1, where the -12.5 list I think has the tools to win. Still, much the same as the above applies (though lack of double Ironblaster is big) – it could do well just on smash results vs unprepared softer armies.

Alex Wheatley: -4.5

Gutstar plus loads of firepower for mid to low comp. Actually quite solid, I think, but time will tell whether the metagame at this event favours such an approach (usually well tailored to answering the plague of MSU elves). Could have a pain dealing with Skaven in round 1.

Mike Morrow: Comp -8

Yet another attempt at a smash list, and I’m running out of things to say. I’ll repeat my earlier point: I think if doing this, Martyn has the right idea: go all out and take double Ironblaster. (I might be tempted to mitigate a bit with a Flyrant, myself.)

Steve Ward: Comp -5.5

Solid army for not *too* low a comp score. I’d expect him to get destroyed by Adam Lake’s Daemons in the first round, but after that, it could potentially be an effective submarine. We’ll see.

Best in Race: it’s between Mark Borland and Martyn Furnival I think. I’m going to go with Martyn, as I think he’ll have the tools to get the big wins that’ll matter a lot in this scoring system.

ORCS + GOBLINS

Steve Slatford: Comp +3

Got to love Goblin lists. Light on the artillery, which is a shame – I think people underestimate Goblins sometimes, though the usual leadership issues and randomness will still cause this to struggle I suspect. A good event for it, and interesting things could happen.

Kevin Gillett: Comp +5

More Goblins! Awesome. I like this list better – always had a soft spot for the chariot units, and the second Doom Diver is big. Don’t underestimate common Goblins in combat either – I’ve seen Stalkers and Goblin Warbosses ruin quite a few days with combat resolution. Think the r1 matchup vs Vampires is difficult, though.

Best in Race: Kevin

SKAVEN

Ben Atkinson: Comp -8

Fairly standard filth really! I think this is favoured against the Ogres round 1, too. That combination of rare choices is properly horrid.

Rob Smith: Comp -5

The Skaven lists are very similar indeed. This one has a few softer choices, but I’m not entirely sure they’re worth the 3 comp points.

Best in Race: Ben Atkinson

THE EMPIRE

Tom Robinson: Comp -4

Double Tank! The griffon doesn’t make up for that… I do like the dual pegasi and the griffon for giving the list a bit of reach, as well as the 7 of knights, and Light magic is always solid. This said, my slight worry is a lack of hard combat crunch – if the tanks can be mitigated, the army can’t necessarily stop some armies just pushing at it, and the backfield could be a little vulnerable, with quite a few relatively-soft points floating about. Still, Tom is a very solid player and the list is nasty and should do well. Except vs Terry round 1, where it’s in big trouble.

Mike Sylvester: Comp -1

A fairly classic Inner Circle bus, though unusually heavily loaded with characters. I like the Pegasus to support, and the tank, but otherwise would prefer to see a character or two less and more stuff on the table. Still, some armies just can’t answer the bus.

Jim Joynson: Comp -4

A nice balanced Empire list with a bit of everything. Still very very solid – it’s a classic for a reason. Cannon and tank for shooting, tank for troubleshooting, demis and knight minibus to fight with, a halberd block to fight and/or bunker, and metal magic is solid. Some light utility units round it out. I like, though -4 comp might be a minor handicap. Think it can handle the unusual DE round 1, anyway.

BEST IN RACE: Tom Robinson

VAMPIRE COUNTS

Steven Slatcher: Comp +20.

Slatch, you are a horrible person. (Here here! - Sandy) Also foolish, because your +13 was much better, and the +20 now has serious weaknesses. Still, +20 with double Terrorgheist… Here’s hoping the MSU dwarfs take you off.

Darren Parkes: Comp +4

Grave Guard may not be seen very often, but they’re not *that* bad. The list has flexible support to its two big combat blocks, though I do just worry slightly that the Vamp Lord will be contained and big points scored elsewhere, in the combat block it isn’t in. Should nonetheless do well.

Best in Race: Slatch, due to breaking the comp. Even if he is an idiot.

WARRIORS OF CHAOS

Alasdhair McMillan: Comp +1

All Khorne with a Sorceror Lord? Really? You disappoint me. The list is aggressive, unsubtle, and at the end of it all vulnerable – easy to avoid and pick up points where you can, so long as you can fight one or two of those units. The Dwarfs r1 are your punishment for the Sorceror Lord…

Elliot Morrish: Comp +2

Mutalith Vortex Beast! Galrauch, the Skullcrushers and the Throgg unit, and the chariots, are actually pretty solid – but lots of soft points to score weaken the army somewhat, and it feels not quite balanced enough in capability. Good luck against Marcus to start, you’re going to need it. I hope the Vortex Beast does something cool at some point over the weekend.

Wayne Peters: Comp -4

Throgg and a Troll horde! I actually really like this, the Slaanesh magic is great, the Prince is always scary, and the Hellcannon gives a bit of reach. Could be a real problem for some people to deal with, though some other armies will kill the Prince and a few soft points and just avoid the Trolls. Oh, and good luck with the Dwarfs…

Best in Race: Wayne Peters

WOOD ELVES

Shahrul Azmi: Comp -2

A very nasty combination of Wild Riders and firepower. I do worry about the lack of anywhere mobile to hide the characters though – if it goes wrong it’ll go wrong big. Still very solid, I just prefer the more mobile lists. Lizards r1 ought to be ok if played right.

Graeme Nicholls: Comp +3

A few slightly different choices, but still loads of firepower and a mid-high comp score. I like the warhawks (Another unit that should probably have gotten a bonus - Sandy), but it might struggle a bit if rushed at by the right army. Still stupidly hard for a +3, and should be fine against the Greenskins r1.

Anastasia Deliyska: Comp -2

Unicorn! Also a colossal amount of shooting and very little to back it up. This is going to be all or nothing in a big way…

Zack Martin: Comp -2

This to me is a nice balance of firepower, mobility and combat power. It also feels a lot less fragile than some of the other lists – more units, more mobility, more option to survive if the shooting doesn’t do the job early. I’m a bit scared of this army, if I’m honest. Equally, can he manage vs Anastasia’s overwhelming firepower in the first round? (It's certainly a game I was intrigued by when doing the draw - Sandy)

Declan Walters: Comp -1

That’s a big wild rider unit! It’s a capable enough army, and reasonably flexible, though a shade magic light for typical wood elf builds. I actually quite like it. R1 match vs Dark Elves is probably slightly favourable but far from certain.

THE PODIUM

Hey, why not make some predictions?

1 – Marcus Lake

2 – Russ Veal

3 – Tom Robinson (hey, he keeps beating me)



So there we have it! That is all the build up I have planned, but if someone wants something particular looking at, just let me know and I'll see if I can oblige. Tomorrow we start setting up the hall, and then it all kicks off on Saturday morning!

Join me back here next week for a recap of the event, and to hear my own views about how it went.