As there are so many armies, I'm going to split these predictions over the next two days. Today we will get the first 7 armies in attendance, and tomorrow the rest. I may also throw in an opinion here or there, so watch out for that. So, without any further ado, let's hand over to Mr Corteen! :-)
EDIT: Dr Corteen apparently!
BEASTMEN
Chris White: Comp -3
Chris White’s list is the only Beastman list there, so best
in race prediction is easy! Looks like he’s gone for the extra 300pts, and
nothing tricksy from the bonus point sections – just -3 for the usual dogging
of shamen (the black sun still come up with the best names for things), -1 for
the lv4 Death and +1 for the Minotaurs. No flying carpets or wizarding hats
here! The list is basically a Bestigor block and a Minotaur bus, with a few Gor, chariots, and shamen behind. Nasty magic phase backed by two solid combat
units could be decent, but the Minotaurs will be simple to control, especially
in such a flak-light army, and it may be difficult to prevent the backfield
being hunted down by some of the more mobile armies at the event. If it runs
into something that tries to fight it head-on, or an opponent particularly
vulnerable to Death magic, it could do well.
CHAOS DWARFS
Andy Adams: Comp -6
Certainly not short on firepower! -4 comp for the
war machines, -2 for the K'Daii, -1 for lv4 Death, and +1 for Hobgoblins and Iron
Daemon, leaving a mystery -1 that might well be the Chalice. I’m a bit
surprised not to see a Magma Cannon in the mix, to be honest, but the threat of Doom and Darkness with the Hellcannon is a big one, and the rockets are
potentially pretty scary. The Taurus isn’t awful in combat in a pinch, though
also expensive and vulnerable – less cannons at this event, I’d have said, but Chaos Dwarf armies can nonetheless be very fragile. (I’m also sad to see no
wolf khans.) I think it’ll win some games big, but fall over pretty hard in a
game or two when it’s a poor matchup or the opponent knows how to beat Chaos Dwarfs, and that combined with the comp score should keep it from getting too
close to the podium. I could, of course, be surprised!
DAEMONS OF CHAOS
James Boots: Comp +9
I reckon this is a properly cool army (though in retrospect
the +3 for monogod DoC seems a bit high…) Between the Keeper and the pair of Soulgrinders it can actually can-open if it needs to, and the whole army is
full of fast-moving threats. Slaanesh magic can be brutal, too. This said,
there are a lot of vulnerable points in the Keeper and it might struggle to
answer properly hardcore combat units, or hunter-killer characters: the Keeper
can’t be everywhere. I’ll be very interested to see where this ends up.
Adam Lake: Comp -6
I’ve seen lists like this played well do utterly horrible
things. The rise of Shadow magic at this event might make Kairos nervous, but
in practice it’s harder to make stick than you might think, especially with
other targets to deal with and the Dwellers threat as well. If an opponent
makes the mistake of underestimating the plaguebearer unit, the results can be
very very one-sided games indeed, so I’d expect this to do well despite the low
comp score. Ogres R1 are a good matchup, too.
Russ Veal: Comp 0
Another mono-god list: really starting to think +3 was too
much, especially with the +1 for no skullcannon. (Me too! On the list to amend for next time... - Sandy) Nurgle contains a lot of the
stronger elements of the Daemon book, and the synergy with Epidemus is
undeniable. Russ’ recent form leaves me in no doubt that he’ll do well – not
much can fight him head-on, and the army is fast and flexible enough to catch
most opponents. If he loses it’ll be to a mobile opponent with the magic and
shooting to score points and not have to engage, or to something that smashes
through a weak spot early before the Tally builds up. Definitely one to watch.
Terry Pike: Comp -1
Like Adam Lake’s list – funnily enough, the formula works
and works well. Terry has made a few concessions and gotten the list to a scary
comp -1, though whether the lack of single beasts and skull cannon will cost
him that many points is an interesting question. (I’d miss the single beasts
more than the cannon, myself). If I had to go with gut feel I’d put Terry’s
approach as the better one, but maybe I’m just overestimating the difference 5 comp
score will make, and Adam has the very favourable ogre matchup round 1.
Best in Race: is a really hard call! Giving it to Russ just on the basis of recent
form really.
DARK ELVES
Marcus Lake: Comp +2
Wow, Marcus has worked magic with the comp here, this is
horrid! All the twitter attention is on the Daemons, but Marcus possibly has
the standout list of the event for me in terms of scariness at comp point. (I
seem to keep saying this about Marcus’ lists in these commentaries. It’s
nothing to do with the ‘special favours’ I’m getting Saturday night. Honest.)
Basically it all comes down to the Black Amulet (a fairly
safe guess I think) and the flying carpet master both being solid and
synergistic choices and giving +2 each. That gives Marcus four flying
characters to bully opponents with, then the usual Dark Elf support cast of Warlocks, Dark Riders, and a bucketload of shooting. The Kharybdiss is
regularly underrated too – basically the list is full of scary things and I
think if I played it it’d smash me right up.
Oh, and he’s drawn an army with a Mutalith Vortex Beast
round 1. His poor poor opponent…
Ric Myhill: Comp -4
An initial count seems to put this at a straight -4. There’s
room for tricks – a flying carpet or a Black Amulet on the Dreadlord (or Sorceress with the latter) would leave room for the Cloak of Twilight and
either Crown of Command or Standard of Discipline, for example. It certainly
has some unusual choices – not sure I’ve ever seen Sisters of Slaughter on the
table before, (I really wish I'd put in a +1 for them! - Sandy) and there are Shades rather than the first two ‘free’ bolt
throwers. It seems a bit low comp score wise for how hard the list looks, but
one should never underestimate Dark Elves.
Phil Pearce: Comp -5
You’re a bad man Phil. A unit of 15 warlocks and then all
the shooting in the world. If I had to guess from an add up of the comp score,
I’d not anticipate anything tricksy – the army is quite character light,
actually, as Dark Elves go, which might limit its ability to fight somewhat.
(Comp -5, -2 for rbt, -2 for shades, -2 for warlocks, +2 for chariots, -1 for
characters… no room for the Cloak, and I can’t see what he’d run with the Black
Amulet to account for the needed extra -1 if the Cloak was in. Crown of Command
is possible, but that’d probably have to be on the Dreadlord and then only 5pts
for a weapon… I’d bet on no cloak, unless I missed something.) Still, I think
this will certainly have the potential to completely mess up some opponents.
In some manner of universal karma, he’s drawn the chaos
dwarfs round 1. Going to be big either way…
Luke Corteen: Comp 0
Two pegasi, a Cauldron Witch Elf unit, Warlocks with a Dark
lv4, a scattering of shooting and support units: this is a fairly classic
balanced Dark Elf list, which one shouldn’t underestimate. It doesn’t do any one
thing to excess, but Dark Elves are so well-rounded that the list ought to have
very few bad matchups against just about anything, which means it’ll come down
to play.
Round 1 draw with Wood Elves could be difficult, but isn’t a
walkover either way.
Best in Race: Marcus Lake (sorry Luke!)
DWARFS
Ian Sturgess: Comp 0
Quite an interesting Dwarf list here. Less of the hard
characters you’d expect, and not too many war machines, but those Irondrakes are
really very solid and potentially quite a threat. I don’t know how strong the
army is, but Ian has a record of doing well with unusual armies. Certainly this
list shouldn’t draw the groans that normally arise when drawn vs dwarfs. I’ll
be intrigued to see how the r1 army-swap grudge with Hristo goes.
Rupert Read: Comp -4
Did you see above about groans? Yeah, this. That said, while
bristling with firepower, I do wonder at the lack of combat characters – if a
solid combat unit survives to get into the dwarfs I fear they could be in
trouble. There’s always someone who backlines it vs the Dwarfs, too, and Shadow
magic is everywhere which could be a pain.
Declan Walters: Comp +19
Heroics! (Rewarded with Slatch r1. Ah well…) Still, loads of
stuff on the table, loads of mobility, a bit of bs-based shooting. It’ll make
for fun games, that’s for sure – but I have absolutely *no idea* how well it’ll
play on the table. Probably poorly, but it might surprise me (see SmithF’s
battle reports on TWF), and +19 is a big comp bonus in a 5-game event with a
stretched 20-0 system.
Ross McKintosh: Comp 0
Lots of firepower here again, with engineer-powered organ
guns. The Dwarf Lord helps if rushed in combat too, and there’s a lot of BS-based shooting. That said… The units feel small. Dangerously small, really –
I can see the inspiration from Andy Spiers’ style of list, but I do worry about
such a tiny Hammerer unit. Still could be brutal nonetheless, with all that
firepower.
Best in Race: hmmm. Hard call; think I’ll go with Rupert
Read.
HIGH ELVES
Liam Jordan: Comp -2
Don’t think I’ve seen Heavens on a High Elf bus before.
Otherwise the list is a Dragon Prince bus (comp score suggests World Dragon)
and some support. Quite light on shooting for an elf list, but very fast –
still, I think the army could lose quite a few points round the edges while the
bus is avoided or blocked, potentially, as there isn’t much else that can actually
fight. Chariots can only do so much.
Alex Read: Comp -4
No World Dragon here, but even so, two big silver helm buses
loaded with characters (and Beasts magic) and a pair of frosthearts makes for a
charmingly unsubtle army. It could roll right over the top of some people, and
it might occasionally get smashed in the nose and fall apart. Still, I imagine
a lot of opponents will be scared to see it across the table! Might be quite an
interesting choice given the stretched boundaries to get 20-0s, as I doubt it’ll
lose many points in the games it wins – the challenge will be scoring enough,
which with four solid threats ought to be possible. Solid.
Hristo Nikolov: Comp -1
Quite an effective looking triple block list backed by Life
magic. Phoenix Guard are very solid, and while midsized White Lion units can be
a shade fragile, the army can support them to an extent. Life magic is quite a
big threat to a lot of armies. This actually feels fairly balanced, in a “take
all comers” sense – lots of options, capable units with good support. Again,
intrigued to see the result of the grudge.
Best in Race: I keep underestimating the infantry high elves
when doing these things, so Hristo, to break a trend. Was going to be Alex
otherwise.
LIZARDMEN
Darren Clayson: Comp -2
A lot of the solid obvious choices here, with a decentish -2
comp score. I’m not a huge fan of the Saurus block, preferring 20s of cohort
skinks, but I know some people do have good experiences with them. No obvious
tricksiness in the comp score, though I couldn’t predict if it’ll have the
channel combo, a scroll, or an outside choice (forbidden rod?) on the Slann. If
I have a criticism, it’s that for a Lizard list, this lacks flexibility –
blocks that vanguard and push, solid magic to support, but actually there isn’t
much else on the table. A good Purple Sun or a properly hard combat unit
engaging wherever the vets aren’t and it could go wrong very quickly.
Adam Daly: Comp +9
A decently high comp score here! The army is basically built
around one huge unit of Kroak, Gor'rok and three Scar Vets. The comp score
implies some tricksiness – either a carpet or the Blade of Realities on the Oldblood, and Skavenpelt banner on the BSB, if I had to guess. That makes the
big unit Frenzied, which could make it hard to handle. Lizard backfields are
never as fragile as they look, there aren’t *that* many points outside the
deathstar and Kroak ought to score a few. Equally, I can see Adam struggling to
win big – he may have to hope the comp score pushes him up the rankings at the
end. OK, that and the r1 match against Slaanesh Daemons…
Jake Corteen: Comp +9
Two in a row! Obviously, this army is awful, and won’t get
anywhere, and you should all underestimate it. Ignore the fact that it somehow
managed to win an uncomped End-Times-legal event. Nothing to see here.
(To add some perspective here, I really like Jake's list. As an unabashed fan of High Magic on Lizards, I can't wait to see how he tailors his spells to each round. The characters are a tough as ever, there are plenty of chaff units, and the big unit of Saurus Cavalry provides a punch often lacking in Lizard lists. And he's taken a unit of 4 Razordons. Woe betide anyone who lets him cast Hand of Glory on those bad boys! - Sandy)
Jonathon Chester: Comp 0 (I think?) (Yep, definately 0! - Sandy)
Classic Lizards fare, though Beasts magic is unusual. Means
the army has a bit less magical reach, but Tetto can cover that. This looks
solid – comp score suggests few tricks, but it shouldn’t need them. Again, I’m
dubious of the Saurus, and Tetto may be hard to protect – but vanguarding
blocks with saurus character support, Rippers as backup, and the usual lizard
tricksiness makes for an effective combination. Then again, he’s drawn Russ R1,
and I don’t think that goes well for him.
Best in Race: me, obviously. Oh, wait, you’re supposed to be
underestimating my list. Hmmm… Jonathon Chester might get a vote but for the r1
matchup, as it is, Adam Daly.
There we go! Hope you all enjoyed that. If your army wasn't mentioned, be sure to tune in tomorrow!
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