Raze and Ruin 2015: Predictions Part 2

Here we go again! Part two of Jake's look at the armies at Raze and Ruin this year. Again, I may chime in from time to time, but the rest is all him. On with the show!
 

Raze and Ruin Predictions

Skaven

Luke Midgley - I don’t know well enough what Thanquol does, but I don’t remember him being especially terrifying for the points. Got to love the Giant Rat unit and Rat Ogres! Think this is a soft list, though extremely characterful – not sure +2 comp is quite enough to make up for the lack of raw power.

Az, by contrast, has brought two units of Stormfiends to the party, and at comp +1 as well. Terrifying! Lots of rats and slaves to back it up, though 20s of Slaves seem quite small. With the magic and shooting available here, some armies will just disintegrate – though anything that can answer the Stormfiends early will present a real challenge, and there’s no Doomwheel or Abomination to keep people distracted from getting to the real points. It’s basically a bit one dimensional – with the right draws and luck it could be an event winner, but it could just as easily all go horribly wrong.

Craig has gone a bit more nuanced – larger units, a second cannon over the stormfiends, and stormvermin with dual warlord to back the double seer. I happen to prefer this approach – I think it is less one-dimensional than Az’s list, and hence more likely to (with good generalship) be able to take on a wide spectrum of matchups – can play more aggressively. That said, as with a few lists here and as Craig himself identified on Twitter, if people play defensively against it he may not score the big points very easily.

Best in Race: Craig Johnson

Tomb Kings

Always good to see the high scores like James Boots’ army (unless it’s Bat Swarms, anyway). MSU Tomb Kings is a really interesting list, too. I’m not convinced it’ll actually necessarily win that many games, but it’s extremely cool and may well have tricks I haven’t seen coming.

Martin Seed has a more conventional army at the +4 mark, though a bit light on Horse Archers for my taste. The magic is certainly horrid, and against the softer lists the TK ought to do well, but I suspect this army will get smashed back down again if it reaches near the top. I could be wrong though – it is a solid army – but I suspect there will be some matches it just can’t win.

Wesley Vickers’ army is the same comp score and quite similar in some ways, but to my mind has the inferior magic phase. A few more support units are welcome to see, but the problems remain the same – may just get knocked back down when it plays a top army.

Joe Sutton brings an army befitting the spare player – ok, not weak, but containing a few unusual choices. Dual casket is pretty cool, but still don’t expect this to dominate. (To be fair to him, this is the list he wanted to take when he was planning on playing in the event properly. It seemed only fair to let him take it as a Spare Player too! - Sandy)

Best in Race: Martin Seed.

Vampire Counts

Arkadiusz has a Zombie Dragon, and that’s pretty cool. Few cannons about either! Horrid magic, a big brick of Crypt Horrors to fight with, some Zombies to stand in the way, and a Zombie Dragon to go about scoring points. This will be very matchup dependent – get the right ones and a seemingly unusual looking list could actually do really well. (Count Mannfredd also makes up for a lot... ;) - Sandy)

Jack, by comparison, has a vampire bus. Not many Light Councils or Cannons to worry it – so this could have potential, though a fair few armies either have something it can’t fight, or something it can’t catch. Still, should be a solid performer.

Best in Race: Jack Chapman

Warriors of Chaos

Ten Warriors armies! Who turned the clock back?

Jonathan Chester has a mono-Tzeentch offering with quite a bit of potential for its +7 score. Looking at the comp it probably has limited Ward saves on its characters, making it less awful than it’d otherwise be, but there’ll be Blasted Standard on that Warrior block hiding a high-powered caster and potentially the other characters to make a solid deathstar, and the rest of the army is hardly full of soft points, though the Vortex Beast is awful (and yes I have played against one – more than one, actually). Anyway, this should do well, though some armies it will struggle to catch/pick the right fights against.

Tony Hayle’s army seems rather softer, with a vulnerable caster, no deathstar, and generally more vulnerable units. Some armies will be concerned by the double fliers, mind! Still, even with comp +6, I think the top lists will destroy this army, sadly.

Elliott Morrish has Galrauch, who is always great fun. No BSB with Galrauch is unusual though! I do like the spread of threat units, and the magic phase is horrid, but there’s just not *quite* enough crunch in any one area here for me to call this a top list. It’s far from bad, though, and will probably happily play around the middle tables.

John Parish is certainly not bringing a subtle army! Death + Hellcannons can be an utter pain, and Archaon is really really hard. Even so – if the tricks don’t work the army is not all that mobile and a shade vulnerable to my taste.

Felix Newman has the first Daemon Prince, and the combination with the pair of Chimeras – in a cannon light environment – could be really really good. I’m not so sold on Sigvald, but I suppose it is comp points and not a complete walkover. Could be a bit of a glass hammer, but Slaanesh magic answers for a multitude of sins – this is the strongest Warriors list so far, albeit close to Jonathons’.

Ben Dunford has a spread of threats that’ll make for a real fun and cool looking army, but I don’t think any of it really adds up to a powerful list. Nurgle isn’t a great lore, the Warrior units look vulnerable, and the army generally seems liable to be taken apart piecemeal, while also being unable to take a properly hard combat force on head-on. Plus, he’s drawn me round 1…

Adam Daly is bringing a Slaanesh Prince and Kholek! See again under cannons and the lack thereof. Could be really good in this environment, actually – though I think I prefer the dual Chimeras, slightly. (Kholek always wins Manhammer points though! - Sandy)

Emmanuel’s army is solid – some hard combat units plus disclord and daemonic mount bsb to go hunt things. I worry it’s a bit small, given each unit isn’t *that* hard on its own, but Nurgle is certainly a powerful Mark and Chaos Lords are hardly walkovers. I reckon this will be a strong contender – hard to score points from, and aggressive.

Huw Jenkins has an interesting magic phase and quite a bit of effective combat support, but a few of the choices seem unusual to me for the low comp score. It’s far from bad, but I think it lacks the power that the combat characters in a few of the above armies bring.

Barrie Norman brings a very hard list to the table – Hellcannon, powerful deathstar unit, no soft points. Can it fight past a -6 comp score? Better than most of the above, I imagine, and I expect this to float around the top tables ruining hobbies, though it might be hard to get an actual win with that score unless everything goes right.

Best in Race: Barrie Norman.

Wood Elves

Forest Dragon! Someone been playing Age of Sigmar, maybe? Jamie Payne’s list otherwise has a bit of shooting, a horrible magic phase and a very large Wild Rider unit, which presumably doubles as combat threat and bunker. High/Death is a scary scary lore combination, but the actual shooting isn’t that nasty for a Wood Elf list – equally, with two heavy combat threats floating about and not that many real points in the backfield, going after them may not prove worth it in the long run. I think this is very solid for a +5, and in a cannon light environment ought to be a real contender.

Thomas Munk instead has triple Treeman Ancients! I haven’t played against one to have much of a clue as to what it does, but again see under lack of cannons. A bit of shooting, a bit of combat support – not convinced this list is as good as Jamie’s, but I might be underestimating the Ancients.

Melvin is the first to bring my favourite Wood Elf unit – Warhawk Riders. So, so good. Otherwise, a few softer choices – Arcane Bodkins are very costly, Waystalkers often gimmicky, Eternal Guard not all that good, and the magic is relatively weak – but the MSU threat profile could give some armies problems. I think it’s a solid army in the midtable area, but a little prone to being run over by some of the harder armies at the event, and will finish slightly above the midfield.

Best in Race: Jamie Payne.

Undead Legion

Tony Swallow’s Blood Knight bus is actually really good, at comp +7. It’s a very hard unit that doesn’t give up points easily and is highly resilient, and it has an utter cloud of cheap support that’ll take a while for anything he can’t fight to chew through, while not giving up all that many points. One of the more comp-breaking lists I’ve seen, to be honest. There are places it could go wrong against very heavy shooting or hard combat threats, and if the knights want to engage it may prove difficult to manoeuvre the flak, but overall I think this list can win some games big and mitigate losses in the rest, and with a good comp score, really impresses me. (It would have been a +9 had the Flag been a Magic Item! - Sandy)

Warren Stevens has a much more mixed feel to his list, with a good variety of units. While the Hexwraiths seem good in the event metagame, I’m not convinced the rest of it really either fights or holds its points very well – and as such suspect this to be a pretty soft list.

Best in Race: Tony Swallow

Legions of Chaos

Luke Tranter has brought what he usually brings to events at the moment, approximately – Doombulls and Razorgor. Thankfully, here, he gets a free 10 tournament points out of it! (OK, the Centigor are unusual even for Luke). It’s actually a very solid list – the Ungor plus characters make for a scary bus unit, the Razorgor hit harder than people expect, and Centigor are solid if unexceptional flankers. With a +10, this could do pretty well, though I think it might run into trouble against the very top lists and hence not make podium.

Chris Mace has a bit of everything – Slaanesh magic is really good, but far better on a mobile platform, sadly. The units are individually solid, but there’s nothing standout exceptional in this list – neither overwhelming combat punch, nor very heavy firepower, nor total MSU. It’ll be fun to play with and against, but I think it lacks a certain something when viewed competitively.

Alasdhair has a very cool mono-Khorne army. No BSB is brave! It’s basically two hard infantry blocks, four flak units, and six chariots (two of which have cannons on) – oh, and a Shaggoth and some Knights, so it’s lots of combat pressure, but might suffer from none of the units being individually that scary. An opponent better able to concentrate force, and with access to a magic phase, may take this apart piecemeal – but those are lots of overlapping charge arcs, and quite a few armies just won’t be able to cope with all this coming at them. (At least there's no Level 4 this year... - Sandy)

Best in Race: Luke Tranter

Host of the Aestyrion

Well, somebody had to. With 5 20-0 wins, this theoretically could win the event – but I don’t think it’s actually going to get that, given the 200vp brackets. Too many points outside the deathstar. It certainly is scary though! I suspect in practice a canny opponent will keep the main unit from scoring big points while trying to run down the artillery and shoot off the fast-cav, and mitigating return damage as far as possible, and I’m not sure the list can hence win big enough consistently enough to overcome a -20.

Best in Race: Liam Wordsworth

Host of the Phoenix King

Again, somebody had to… At least this Malekith is less totally game-breaking than the other one. Again, -16 is a big hurdle to overcome – and some of those infantry units can be quite vulnerable. No BSB, either. Still, two horrid flying threats plus support that’ll take time to blow through could work out – but my instinct is that this is less good than the Tyrion build above. Some people just won’t be able to answer Malekith, but enough people will get points out of the army for a win to be unlikely and tbh a podium similar. Might mess up some people’s run at the top places though.

Best in Race: Julie Stevens. 

Well, that's the end of the rundown! Thanks to Jake for taking the time to go through all the lists. It must have been a big job. 

My Favourites

As I said yesterday, there are a few lists that to me stand out as contenders for the event. These might be lists that have played the Comp pack well and have a good score for how tough they seem, lists that have all the tools to overcome their Comp deficit, or lists that can play well despite seemingly containing weaker units. I'm not saying that these lists are unbeatable, but to me they seem like the early favourites to finish well.

So, in no particular order:

Nav Hussain - Orcs & Goblins

Nav has a big unit of Orcs, lead by one of the biggest Orcs there is. He has a great selection of Magic with the double Level 4, a lot of shooting, and 2 big monsters to threaten the squishier lists. There also isn't a lot of soft points in this list. I expect it to shoot and cast Foot on anything that Grimgor can't beat up, and then clean up the rest in combat. It's going to be very tough to stop.

Craig Johnson - Skaven

Filth. :-) This is a variation on his ETC list that I played a couple of games against before that event, and I couldn't figure out how to beat it. It has a huge amount of ranged threat in the Cannons, Gutter Runners, Stormfiends and magic, can dictate his opponent's movement with the Slaves and Doomwheel, and has the Stormvermin to clean up what's left. Plus, I fully expect him to be using Undeath which adds a whole new layer of trouble to the list. He's put out on Twitter that his main worry is that people won;t engage, but I don't see a list out there that can avoid him for 6 turns without giving up enough for a decent win to Craig.

Sotiris Bellos - Empire

A very strong list, two Tanks always makes for a tough game. Given that these are some of the only cannons at an event with lots of monsters, they should be able to pick up some easy points in some games. Supporting them you have the standard Empire cavalry, a good selection of magic, and enough light shooting to take out some of the harder to catch lists. I could just have easily picked the other Empire list with two Tanks, but I think the added threat of the Peg riders and Demigryphs push this to the top.

Ian Sturgess - High Elves

Ian has decided to play very safe with his High Elf list - which actually takes it well out of his comfort zone! However, given how well he has done with the wacky lists I can see him doing better with the filthier aspects of the book. Even the first line of his list is enough to scare most people, as Teclis seems to have just picked the most hated spell from each Lore! Added to that the potential for a second Banishment, this is one that has all the tools to win.

Felix Newman - Warriors of Chaos

This is the first time I disagree with Jake. The thing that makes Warriors so difficult to comp is that so many of their choices are good. A list that has a Daemon Prince, 2 Chimerae and 2 Chariots has the potential to do a huge amount of damage. To get these threats with a Comp score of +1 gives it a huge advantage over most of the other smashy Warriors lists. 

Any of the Lizardmen Lists

I know, a cop out, so sue me! ;-) To be fair, they are all good in their own ways and any one of them could very easily take out the event. They either have a good Comp score, the sheer power to flex their way out of a bad score, or the subtlety that comes from being played by Jake and Raff - two of the very best. This is all set up to be one of the most interesting Best in Race battles of the weekend.

And that's it!

If there is anything else that you want to know about the lists, then let me know. I might have enough ideas for one more post tomorrow, but after that it will just be the event itself to look forward to. I will be doing a recap post afterwards too, so see you then!