Raze and Ruin 2015: Predictions Part 1

Something that went down very well last year were the Best in Race predictions before the event. I have spoken to Jake Corteen, who did them last year, and he has very kindly had a look again this year! I have broken them down into two parts, with 9 races being done today and 9 more tomorrow. I may weigh in on certain topics, and you'll see my comments in italics.

With no further ado, I will pass you over to Jake!

Raze and Ruin Predictions

I’ve done these for a few events now, and they seem popular, and Sandy has asked me to do them again for Raze and Ruin. I’ve managed at least passable accuracy in the past, hopefully I can keep my record strong.

Basically, I review in very brief the lists from each army, then give my pick for Best in Race. On a good day, I get about half of them right.

I might go through the Round 1 matchups as well if I get time, but no promises. I’ve tried to do this based on list as much as on player, though I will sometimes take the latter into account. I’ve not looked at the Round 1 matchups when doing these, so that’ll add a degree of inaccuracy.

Beastmen

I always seem to give this to Luke Tranter, but then the traitor is playing Legions of Chaos instead. (OK, OK, I’ve seen his list, I’ll give him a break). (I think he could have got it to a +15 as a pure Beastmen list. Disappointing. :P - Sandy)

Best in Race: Chris Legg to somehow come 2^nd despite not actually being at the event or playing Beastmen.

Bretonnia

Only two lists here makes this a simple review to start with, on the face of it, but in practice so much in these lists hangs on the magic items. Otherwise, Ben has gone for one big lance, whereas Slatch has a slightly more spread threat profile. Looking at the other armies, I think the potential for Dwellers threat is really useful against some of the lower-comp lists, and I rate Heavens over Beasts for Brets.

Thing is, I was on a team event recently with Ben and know the tricks he likely has, and think it’s a really very good list indeed, and know he knows how to use it. Slatch is always a solid player, but has been using more armies lately so is likely less in practice. As such, I have to go for Ben here.

Best in Race Prediction: Ben Atkinson

Daemons of Chaos

Another easy one for best in race, with only one list! Oh how the mighty fall...

It’s actually a very aggressive list with not very many soft points at all to give away, and it exists in a relatively cannon light metagame for the event (even the 4 dwarf players only have the one cannon between them). I think this is extremely strong in the environment, and could really ruin some people’s days. With so few points to give away, if it gets the right matchups it could score the 20s despite the 200vp brackets.

Best in Race: Chris White. (Obviously! - Sandy)

Dark Elves

OK, now I have some actual decisions to make, with four armies present.

Got to admire Andy Bettney's +14 list! As we established above, it’s a cannon light environment – but there are still a fair few other sources of shooting, to which the chariots are more vulnerable. I think it’s going to be brilliant fun to play, but I’m not convinced this army brings enough raw power to the table to capitalise on its +14 for an actual top placing. I do intend to find out how it gets on though, as it’s one of the more unusual armies at the event.

Max Halford’s list is, by contrast, actually pretty horrid at a fairly neutral comp score. It may look scattered at a first read, but I’ve learned to respect Hellebron, and I think Life magic is well positioned in this event metagame. The army can concentrate a lot of points into a unit, with the cauldron and Hellebron letting it smash right through a lot of opponents’ armies for big wins; while there aren’t *too* many points to give up around the edges, and the Warlocks are difficult to pin down. It’ll be heavily matchup dependent – some armies will manage to avoid the main unit or shoot it off, and clean up the support; but all it’ll take is the right draws and this army will drift right to the top.

James Wroot has a more conventional appearing list – Malekith in a big bus of Cold Ones, a Witch Elf block, plus some shooting, Warlocks and fast units round the edges. It’s sort of a double bus list, with the cold one characters perfectly able to run in the Warlocks, giving it three tough combat units two of which are pretty fast, and the ability to control its engagements. My big concern is that it lacks combat crunch – none of the characters are *that* hard, I’ve previously found the cold one / warlock buses really benefit from a choppy Dreadlord to do damage against hard targets, and Malekith just doesn’t cut it in that regard. Still, -4 is not *that* low a comp score for a very aggressive list that is perfectly able to go out and get the big wins, so this should do well.

Mike Sylvester appears to have gone for raw power over comp score – but I doubt it can put up the numbers required to podium through a -11 score, given the other armies at the event. It’s hard, but not 10pts over 5 games harder than some of the 0 lists, I suspect. Still, I could be proven wrong and I expect this to drift upward, eventually ending in a slightly above middle finish after comp is applied.

Best in Race prediction: James Wroot.

Dwarfs

Lots of variety in the Dwarf armies, which shows the comp is doing its job. (My view is that Tally Comp is valuable more for the variety that it encourages than for the actual balancing effect.)

The +19 effort from Andrew Smith is certainly impressive. Sadly, however, I expect other armies to run over the top of it too easily for it to actually win anything – but it should get some points somewhere and finish around the middle.

Terry Flaherty, on the other hand, I expect to do rather well. He’s been putting up strong results recently with combat dwarfs, and this army is both at +6 comp and has the tools to do the job. Irondrakes are scary, scary things; and with the gyros and shooting it can both control engagements and actually fight with its hard brick and solid support units. I’d tip this for placing very well.

Dan Seymour has a hybrid sort of build with a bit of artillery and some solid bricks, but it misses the gyrocopters to control engagements, and in my experience the slayers are just too vulnerable. It’s not a bad list by any means, but neither does it quite have the honed edge that Terry’s does – I’d expect a middle placing.

Will Dunn has a solid approach – Irondrakes appear again, though in a smaller unit. The only dwarf list with respectable artillery, this has a lot of firepower – but not enough combat to back it up, and in practice with only one cannon to stop hard targets I think it might end up overrun in a few games. To my view dwarfs can’t go halfway on this – they need either their full power artillery park or to put points into manoeuvre and combat, if they try to do both the points just don’t stretch.

Best in Race: Terry Flaherty.

Empire

Seems there’s been a fire sale on Steam Tanks, with both armies here bringing two. Tom backs it up with a very-hard-indeed knight brick, and some comp-positive support; while Sotiris brings a mini Light council, some MSU shooting, and a unit of Demis to back up a much smaller knight unit. Tom has 5 points more on comp, but I think Sotiris’ list is the more flexible – sure, it gives up more points, but I think it also has the potential to score more. Depends – if people misplay against Tom or misread how strong the Knights are, it may be possible to go right through whole armies with them, and the Tanks are always solid – but I think Sotiris has a better spread of matchups overall. The Pegasi are really, really good. Both armies should place near the top, I reckon – solid comp scores for how hard they are.

Best in Race: Sotiris Bellos.

High Elves

Josh Meads has my respect for his Moon Dragon Archmage and Dragon Mage, it must be said. Should be fun to play, and as before, cannon-light environment. Equally, not sure the High Elf cav is hitty enough to back it up, with no characters in support – not even a BSB. +7 comp doesn’t answer that, so not a top-placing list, though a very fun and characterful one.

Maciej has managed a +2 comp score with (probably) Book and Banner – but has some quite soft units to do it. Only one bolt thrower plus some Seaguard shooting, and not *that* much hard combat, makes this a slightly soft list despite the often-underestimated power of the Anointed on Frostheart. Still, I’ve learned not to underestimate combined arms High Elves too much – they always seem to end up performing well, and this one is very mobile and flexible. I’d expect an above-average placing but not setting the world on fire, here.

Simon Brown again seems to have Book & Banner, and dual Lv4 magic phases are usually pretty scary. Swordmasters, though, I’m not a great fan of, and the army is lacking in solid support. Too many armies can just pick a block and kill it, and clean up the backfield, and score a clean if not huge win.

I’ve learned not to bet against Ian Sturgess. This time he’s brought a more conventional list than usual – will his mojo desert him? Teclis is just horrible, having played against him before, and see what I said above about combined-arms High Elves. The Phoenix Guard are a very solid unit indeed, the army has some shooting support, and the silver helm minibus is pretty capable with that magic  backing it up – if there’s one failing it’s a lack of Eagles or Reavers, but that may just mean less points to give away. I’d back this over any of the other High Elf lists.

Best in Race: Ian Sturgess

Lizardmen

Much respect for Hugh Scarlin, bringing a Skink Chief deathstar. Razordons + High magic look scary on paper, but my experience last time with them was that they just aren’t worth the points. Still, the list has a lot of shooting and relatively few soft points, and Lizards are always strong even before a +6 comp bonus. The skrox deathstar is actually very capable indeed, and I suspect some people will underestimate it heavily – and the list has a stupid number of redirectors to keep points safe if need be. It’s even more vulnerable than standard Lizards to pressure from fliers, though; and the wrong magic can make a total mess of it. Very solid, and will drift toward the top, but I think the odds are there’ll be a matchup or two that knock it off the very top.

Raff has brought dual Slann – nice throwback to the old days, and Undeath is *insanely* powerful. I’d have brought it, but I don’t have the models painted to get cohesive points, and didn’t want the penalty. Otherwise, the list has some unusual choices, but still loads of power – Oldblood (probably flying?) and dual Vets plus Stegadon means a lot of combat crunch, and the magic certainly backs it up well. There’s less shooting than usual, and it may prove difficult to protect the Slann in some games, but this is a solid contender, especially in a cannon-light environment. Lots of tricks with High magic supporting Undeath, too – underestimate this army at your peril, lacking Skinks or no.

I’ve brought my fairly standard list from recently – it’s a pretty aggressive build for Lizards, with a fierce magic phase and lots of aggressive options from the Rippers, Skrox and dual Oldbloods, combined with a decent bit of shooting. Might be a bit short on units, but I’m hoping it’s set up to get the big scoring results I’ll need for a high placing. Can I beat Raff though? (You very nearly ended up drawn against him Round 1! - Sandy)

Adam Freeman’s list is one of the few negative scores I think has a chance of doing really well. It’s an utter pain to get points out of, and really aggressive, and there isn’t *that* much at the event that fights it headon. It’s going to depend heavily on matchup, and if people play defensive against it it just won’t score the points required to overcome a -7 and place right at the top, but I’d expect this to win most of its games.

Best in Race: Raff Harbinson, but all of these armies will place well, and I intend to give him a run for his money.

Ogre Kingdoms

Ollie Fox has two very solid brick units for a +2 list, and I’ve always liked shooty Maneaters. As seems to be a good choice for this event, very few soft points. However, I think Maw lets the army down a little – with Heavens it’d be a lot scarier, more able to pressure people. It’s a solid list and some armies just can’t answer it, but not quite event winning I don’t think.

Alex Wheatley has a slightly different approach – 3*6 Leadbelchers is a lot of shooting! I also do love the dual Slaughtermaster, and it’s a solid list for a neutral comp score. I do worry, though, that there are a few too many things about that the Ogres can’t answer without Ironblasters, and the Leadbelchers give up points more easily than Maneaters do.

Chris Bond’s army is certainly cool – dual Thundertusk isn’t something you see every day! Backed by some solid units, but again, I think Ogres need their Ironblasters to play with the top armies. Nonetheless, never underestimate a GutStar, and there isn’t much Death magic about…

Mick McKee has a nice combined arms approach, and does at least have one Ironblaster – hoping that’s a Flyrant, too. Solid, capable, neutralish comp score – recipe for success, but I don’t know, it just doesn’t inspire me. It has potential, but I think too many armies will be able to fight it on their own terms.

Christian Moore has to drop to comp -4 to get dual Ironblaster in – but it’s totally worth it. This is the strongest Ogre list here. Ironguts are a bit small, meaning the GutStar is kind of vulnerable, but lots of shooting, good magic (Heavens is great in these lists) and a flexible set of answers makes this my pick for top Ogre.

Best in Race: Christian Moore (and not just because I beat him at 40k recently…)

Orcs & Goblins

Mark Borland, hobby hero as always. That’s a lot of goblins, plus no magic, no artillery and no manglers! Even with +20, can he make it to the top? I sadly suspect not – despite some tricks I suspect to be present that I won’t spoil, but a lot of people underestimate – but I’d love it if he did. Think it’s too vulnerable though.

Nav Hussein, by contrast, managed +9 with notably more power – Grimgor is really good, and the army has both a fearsome magic phase and is hard to get points out of. Could be a real contender, this army – though if people don’t play the game against it, could be harder for it to score points, and one or two of the armies might actually be able to take it off. Barring those issues, though, one to watch.

Gareth Barton’s list is pretty conventional – but lots of goblins! Think it lacks support, though – too easy to get round it and engage one unit at convenience, and not enough reach to really threaten people effectively.

Philip Ashley does it better – that’s a solid list for a -1. A better magic phase and savage orcs over normal orcs makes a big difference, as do a few support units. This said, there are enough hard lists about to knock even a strong o&g list back down into the field – it’ll be play and matchup dependent, but I’m not expecting this to be a contender for the event win unless the general turns out to be excellent.

Best in Race: Nav Hussein


Well that's it for today! If your army hasn't been mentioned today, make sure you tune in tomorrow and we will have the second half of Jake's predictions. I will also reveal the 6 lists I feel have an edge on the competition, so stay tuned! :-)