Raze and Ruin Predictions
Skaven
Luke Midgley - I don’t know well enough what
Thanquol does,
but I don’t remember him being especially terrifying for the
points. Got to
love the Giant Rat unit and Rat Ogres! Think this is a soft list, though
extremely
characterful – not sure +2 comp is quite enough to make up for the
lack of raw
power.
Az, by contrast, has brought two units of
Stormfiends to the
party, and at comp +1 as well. Terrifying! Lots of rats and slaves
to back it
up, though 20s of Slaves seem quite small. With the magic and
shooting
available here, some armies will just disintegrate – though
anything that can
answer the Stormfiends early will present a real challenge, and
there’s no
Doomwheel or Abomination to keep people distracted from getting to
the real
points. It’s basically a bit one dimensional – with the right
draws and luck it
could be an event winner, but it could just as easily all go
horribly wrong.
Craig has gone a bit more nuanced – larger
units, a second
cannon over the stormfiends, and stormvermin with dual warlord to
back the
double seer. I happen to prefer this approach – I think it is less
one-dimensional
than Az’s list, and hence more likely to (with good generalship) be
able to take
on a wide spectrum of matchups – can play more aggressively. That
said, as with
a few lists here and as Craig himself identified on Twitter, if
people play
defensively against it he may not score the big points very
easily.
Best in Race: Craig Johnson
Tomb
Kings
Always good to see the high scores like James
Boots’ army
(unless it’s Bat Swarms, anyway). MSU Tomb Kings is a really
interesting list,
too. I’m not convinced it’ll actually necessarily win that many
games, but it’s
extremely cool and may well have tricks I haven’t seen coming.
Martin Seed has a more conventional army at the
+4 mark,
though a bit light on Horse Archers for my taste. The magic is
certainly
horrid, and against the softer lists the TK ought to do well, but
I suspect
this army will get smashed back down again if it reaches near the
top. I could
be wrong though – it is a solid army – but I suspect there will be
some matches
it just can’t win.
Wesley Vickers’ army is the same comp score and
quite similar
in some ways, but to my mind has the inferior magic phase. A few
more support
units are welcome to see, but the problems remain the same – may
just get
knocked back down when it plays a top army.
Joe Sutton brings an army befitting the spare
player – ok,
not weak, but containing a few unusual choices. Dual casket is
pretty cool, but
still don’t expect this to dominate. (To be fair to him, this is the list he wanted to take when he was planning on playing in the event properly. It seemed only fair to let him take it as a Spare Player too! - Sandy)
Best in Race: Martin Seed.
Vampire
Counts
Arkadiusz has a Zombie Dragon, and that’s
pretty cool. Few
cannons about either! Horrid magic, a big brick of Crypt Horrors
to fight with,
some Zombies to stand in the way, and a Zombie Dragon to go about
scoring
points. This will be very matchup dependent – get the right ones
and a
seemingly unusual looking list could actually do really well. (Count Mannfredd also makes up for a lot... ;) - Sandy)
Jack, by comparison, has a vampire bus. Not
many Light
Councils or Cannons to worry it – so this could have potential,
though a fair
few armies either have something it can’t fight, or something it
can’t catch.
Still, should be a solid performer.
Best in Race: Jack Chapman
Warriors
of Chaos
Ten Warriors armies! Who turned the clock back?
Jonathan Chester has a mono-Tzeentch offering
with quite a
bit of potential for its +7 score. Looking at the comp it probably
has limited
Ward saves on its characters, making it less awful than it’d
otherwise be, but
there’ll be Blasted Standard on that Warrior block hiding a
high-powered caster
and potentially the other characters to make a solid deathstar,
and the rest of
the army is hardly full of soft points, though the Vortex Beast is
awful (and
yes I have played against one – more than one, actually). Anyway,
this should
do well, though some armies it will struggle to catch/pick the
right fights
against.
Tony Hayle’s army seems rather softer, with a
vulnerable
caster, no deathstar, and generally more vulnerable units. Some
armies will be
concerned by the double fliers, mind! Still, even with comp +6, I
think the top
lists will destroy this army, sadly.
Elliott Morrish has Galrauch, who is always
great fun. No
BSB with Galrauch is unusual though! I do like the spread of
threat units, and
the magic phase is horrid, but there’s just not *quite* enough
crunch in any
one area here for me to call this a top list. It’s far from bad,
though, and
will probably happily play around the middle tables.
John Parish is certainly not bringing a subtle
army! Death +
Hellcannons can be an utter pain, and Archaon is really really
hard. Even so –
if the tricks don’t work the army is not all that mobile and a
shade vulnerable
to my taste.
Felix Newman has the first Daemon Prince, and
the
combination with the pair of Chimeras – in a cannon light
environment – could be
really really good. I’m not so sold on Sigvald, but I suppose it
is comp points
and not a complete walkover. Could be a bit of a glass hammer, but
Slaanesh
magic answers for a multitude of sins – this is the strongest
Warriors list so
far, albeit close to Jonathons’.
Ben Dunford has a spread of threats that’ll
make for a real
fun and cool looking army, but I don’t think any of it really adds
up to a powerful
list. Nurgle isn’t a great lore, the Warrior units look
vulnerable, and the
army generally seems liable to be taken apart piecemeal, while
also being
unable to take a properly hard combat force on head-on. Plus, he’s
drawn me
round 1…
Adam Daly is bringing a Slaanesh Prince and
Kholek! See
again under cannons and the lack thereof. Could be really good in
this environment,
actually – though I think I prefer the dual Chimeras, slightly. (Kholek always wins Manhammer points though! - Sandy)
Emmanuel’s army is solid – some hard combat
units plus
disclord and daemonic mount bsb to go hunt things. I worry it’s a
bit small,
given each unit isn’t *that* hard on its own, but Nurgle is
certainly a
powerful Mark and Chaos Lords are hardly walkovers. I reckon this
will be a
strong contender – hard to score points from, and aggressive.
Huw Jenkins has an interesting magic phase and
quite a bit
of effective combat support, but a few of the choices seem unusual
to me for
the low comp score. It’s far from bad, but I think it lacks the
power that the
combat characters in a few of the above armies bring.
Barrie Norman brings a very hard list to the
table – Hellcannon, powerful deathstar unit, no soft points. Can it fight
past a -6
comp score? Better than most of the above, I imagine, and I expect
this to
float around the top tables ruining hobbies, though it might be
hard to get an
actual win with that score unless everything goes right.
Best in Race: Barrie Norman.
Wood
Elves
Forest Dragon! Someone been playing Age of
Sigmar, maybe?
Jamie Payne’s list otherwise has a bit of shooting, a horrible magic
phase and a very
large Wild Rider unit, which presumably doubles as combat threat
and bunker. High/Death
is a scary scary lore combination, but the actual shooting isn’t
that nasty for
a Wood Elf list – equally, with two heavy combat threats floating
about and not
that many real points in the backfield, going after them may not
prove worth it
in the long run. I think this is very solid for a +5, and in a
cannon light
environment ought to be a real contender.
Thomas Munk instead has triple Treeman
Ancients! I haven’t
played against one to have much of a clue as to what it does, but
again see
under lack of cannons. A bit of shooting, a bit of combat support
– not convinced
this list is as good as Jamie’s, but I might be underestimating
the Ancients.
Melvin is the first to bring my favourite Wood
Elf unit –
Warhawk Riders. So, so good. Otherwise, a few softer choices – Arcane Bodkins
are very costly, Waystalkers often gimmicky, Eternal Guard not all
that good,
and the magic is relatively weak – but the MSU threat profile
could give some
armies problems. I think it’s a solid army in the midtable area,
but a little
prone to being run over by some of the harder armies at the event,
and will
finish slightly above the midfield.
Best in Race: Jamie Payne.
Undead Legion
Tony Swallow’s Blood Knight bus is actually
really good, at
comp +7. It’s a very hard unit that doesn’t give up points easily
and is highly
resilient, and it has an utter cloud of cheap support that’ll take
a while for
anything he can’t fight to chew through, while not giving up all
that many
points. One of the more comp-breaking lists I’ve seen, to be
honest. There are
places it could go wrong against very heavy shooting or hard
combat threats,
and if the knights want to engage it may prove difficult to
manoeuvre the flak,
but overall I think this list can win some games big and mitigate
losses in the
rest, and with a good comp score, really impresses me. (It would have been a +9 had the Flag been a Magic Item! - Sandy)
Warren Stevens has a much more mixed feel to
his list, with
a good variety of units. While the Hexwraiths seem good in the
event metagame,
I’m not convinced the rest of it really either fights or holds its
points very
well – and as such suspect this to be a pretty soft list.
Best in Race: Tony Swallow
Legions
of Chaos
Luke Tranter has brought what he usually brings
to events at
the moment, approximately – Doombulls and Razorgor. Thankfully,
here, he gets a
free 10 tournament points out of it! (OK, the Centigor are unusual
even for
Luke). It’s actually a very solid list – the Ungor plus characters
make for a
scary bus unit, the Razorgor hit harder than people expect, and
Centigor are
solid if unexceptional flankers. With a +10, this could do pretty
well, though
I think it might run into trouble against the very top lists and
hence not make
podium.
Chris Mace has a bit of everything – Slaanesh
magic is
really good, but far better on a mobile platform, sadly. The units
are
individually solid, but there’s nothing standout exceptional in
this list –
neither overwhelming combat punch, nor very heavy firepower, nor
total MSU. It’ll
be fun to play with and against, but I think it lacks a certain
something when
viewed competitively.
Alasdhair has a very cool mono-Khorne army. No
BSB is brave!
It’s basically two hard infantry blocks, four flak units, and six
chariots (two
of which have cannons on) – oh, and a Shaggoth and some Knights,
so it’s lots
of combat pressure, but might suffer from none of the units being
individually
that scary. An opponent better able to concentrate force, and with
access to a
magic phase, may take this apart piecemeal – but those are lots of
overlapping
charge arcs, and quite a few armies just won’t be able to cope
with all this
coming at them. (At least there's no Level 4 this year... - Sandy)
Best in Race: Luke Tranter
Host of
the Aestyrion
Well, somebody had to. With 5 20-0 wins, this
theoretically
could win the event – but I don’t think it’s actually going to get
that, given
the 200vp brackets. Too many points outside the deathstar. It
certainly is
scary though! I suspect in practice a canny opponent will keep the
main unit
from scoring big points while trying to run down the artillery and
shoot off
the fast-cav, and mitigating return damage as far as possible, and
I’m not sure
the list can hence win big enough consistently enough to overcome
a -20.
Best in Race: Liam Wordsworth
Host of
the Phoenix
King
Again, somebody had to… At least this Malekith
is less
totally game-breaking than the other one. Again, -16 is a big
hurdle to
overcome – and some of those infantry units can be quite
vulnerable. No BSB,
either. Still, two horrid flying threats plus support that’ll take
time to blow
through could work out – but my instinct is that this is less good
than the
Tyrion build above. Some people just won’t be able to answer
Malekith, but
enough people will get points out of the army for a win to be
unlikely and tbh
a podium similar. Might mess up some people’s run at the top
places though.
Best in Race: Julie Stevens.
Well, that's the end of the rundown! Thanks to Jake for taking the time to go through all the lists. It must have been a big job.
My Favourites
As I said yesterday, there are a few lists that to me stand out as contenders for the event. These might be lists that have played the Comp pack well and have a good score for how tough they seem, lists that have all the tools to overcome their Comp deficit, or lists that can play well despite seemingly containing weaker units. I'm not saying that these lists are unbeatable, but to me they seem like the early favourites to finish well.
So, in no particular order:
Nav Hussain - Orcs & Goblins
Nav has a big unit of Orcs, lead by one of the biggest Orcs there is. He has a great selection of Magic with the double Level 4, a lot of shooting, and 2 big monsters to threaten the squishier lists. There also isn't a lot of soft points in this list. I expect it to shoot and cast Foot on anything that Grimgor can't beat up, and then clean up the rest in combat. It's going to be very tough to stop.
Craig Johnson - Skaven
Filth. :-) This is a variation on his ETC list that I played a couple of games against before that event, and I couldn't figure out how to beat it. It has a huge amount of ranged threat in the Cannons, Gutter Runners, Stormfiends and magic, can dictate his opponent's movement with the Slaves and Doomwheel, and has the Stormvermin to clean up what's left. Plus, I fully expect him to be using Undeath which adds a whole new layer of trouble to the list. He's put out on Twitter that his main worry is that people won;t engage, but I don't see a list out there that can avoid him for 6 turns without giving up enough for a decent win to Craig.
Sotiris Bellos - Empire
A very strong list, two Tanks always makes for a tough game. Given that these are some of the only cannons at an event with lots of monsters, they should be able to pick up some easy points in some games. Supporting them you have the standard Empire cavalry, a good selection of magic, and enough light shooting to take out some of the harder to catch lists. I could just have easily picked the other Empire list with two Tanks, but I think the added threat of the Peg riders and Demigryphs push this to the top.
Ian Sturgess - High Elves
Ian has decided to play very safe with his High Elf list - which actually takes it well out of his comfort zone! However, given how well he has done with the wacky lists I can see him doing better with the filthier aspects of the book. Even the first line of his list is enough to scare most people, as Teclis seems to have just picked the most hated spell from each Lore! Added to that the potential for a second Banishment, this is one that has all the tools to win.
Felix Newman - Warriors of Chaos
This is the first time I disagree with Jake. The thing that makes Warriors so difficult to comp is that so many of their choices are good. A list that has a Daemon Prince, 2 Chimerae and 2 Chariots has the potential to do a huge amount of damage. To get these threats with a Comp score of +1 gives it a huge advantage over most of the other smashy Warriors lists.
Any of the Lizardmen Lists
I know, a cop out, so sue me! ;-) To be fair, they are all good in their own ways and any one of them could very easily take out the event. They either have a good Comp score, the sheer power to flex their way out of a bad score, or the subtlety that comes from being played by Jake and Raff - two of the very best. This is all set up to be one of the most interesting Best in Race battles of the weekend.
And that's it!
If there is anything else that you want to know about the lists, then let me know. I might have enough ideas for one more post tomorrow, but after that it will just be the event itself to look forward to. I will be doing a recap post afterwards too, so see you then!